DELIVERABLES

Browse the deliverables of the project

> WP 3: Global change impacts and risks assessments at Cala Millor

Ad-hoc methodology for a Multi-Risk Assessment (D3.1)

The document describes a methodological approach designed to analyse climate change-related risks in urban beaches. It identifies and quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and extreme marine conditions on the beach–backshore system, the environment, and socio-economic activities. The report establishes replicable guidelines for local integrated assessments, based on IPCC climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and multiple time horizons, including extreme events with return periods of 50 and 100 years.

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Socioeconomics consequences (D3.2)

The document analyses how climate change may affect Cala Millor’s economy, which is highly dependent on sun-and-beach tourism. Direct impacts include the flooding of urban areas due to sea-level rise, while indirect effects are linked to the reduction of beach surface and decreased climatic comfort for tourists. The economic assessment considers both activities (total sales) and real estate (cadastral value). Results show that the total economic value amounts to €2.673 billion, with potential losses of up to 58% in tourist demand and 50.3% in economic value under scenarios of substantial beach loss.

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Report on exposed elements and historical impacts at Cala Millor (D3.3)

The document provides a detailed description of wave climate in Cala Millor, focusing on extreme events and their effects on the beach, measured as shoreline changes. It integrates observational data collected since 2011 with high-resolution hydrodynamic-wave models. The study analyses 79 observed extreme events and 688 simulated ones, identifying synoptic atmospheric patterns responsible for them. Although models tend to underestimate peak wave heights, their consistency with observations makes them valuable for regional-scale context. Results show that, while most storms do not cause structural damage, they do lead to sediment loss or redistribution and, in some cases, sand transport onto the promenade. The report highlights the importance of continuous coastal monitoring to improve risk management.

Integrated multidisciplinar methodology (D3.4)

The document provides a multidisciplinary synthesis of climate change impacts in Cala Millor. In the physical dimension, it identifies a slight sediment deficit, significant variability in beach width, and a decreasing trend in dry beach area, with increasing coastal flooding scenarios towards 2100. In the environmental dimension, it highlights the loss of 99% of the dune system and the projected disappearance of Posidonia oceanica under both climate scenarios. In the socio-economic dimension, it estimates a total economic value of €2.673 billion, with losses ranging between 25% and 83% depending on the scenario and time horizon. This integrated analysis offers a solid basis for decision-making and the design of adaptation measures.

Integrated multiRisk Assessment (D3.5)

The document presents an integrated multi-risk assessment that combines hazards such as sea-level rise, extreme waves, coastal erosion, and the degradation of key ecosystems like Posidonia oceanica. The methodology considers physical, environmental, and urban factors, assessing the vulnerability of the beach, dunes, seagrass meadows, cadastral parcels, infrastructures, and public spaces. Risk maps are developed to identify the most exposed areas and estimate significant economic losses: under the RCP4.5 scenario for 2030, indirect losses reach about €765 million, while in the RCP8.5 scenario for 2100 they could exceed €2.225 billion. Results show increased exposure particularly in circulation areas and public spaces along the seafront, as well as in the beach, whose width is critically reduced. This analysis provides a holistic and spatially detailed view to prioritise conservation and adaptation measures.

> WP4 Assessment of potential adaptation measures in Cala Millor

Evaluation of adaptation measures (D4.1)

The document compiles the results of the impact and risk assessment (WP3) and proposes adaptation measures for Cala Millor. After analysing the physical, environmental, and socio-economic context of the beach and its dynamics, 8 strategic objectives and 67 specific objectives were defined, aligned with regional, national, and international frameworks. Based on these, a preliminary catalogue of adaptation measures was developed, debated and revised in 2025 with partners and local stakeholders. The catalogue includes natural, nature-based, structural, and non-structural measures, organised by dimension. This work forms the basis for the integrated strategies presented in D4.2 and is replicable in other urban coastal environments.

Integrated adaptation strategies for Cala Millor (D4.2)

The document summarises the design of integrated adaptation strategies for climate change in Cala Millor. Based on the catalogue of measures evaluated in D4.1 and the results of the WP3 risk assessment, it structures four main strategies and seven sub-strategies tailored to different sections of the beach. These proposals take into account technical, environmental, legal, and social constraints, and were developed through a participatory process with the working group. The report provides an operational framework to guide the planning and implementation of adaptation measures in Cala Millor, with a replicable approach for other urban coastal contexts.